Jacksonville absent from Florida's top real-estate markets in 2027 outlook

Five Florida markets rank among the nation's top 20 for real-estate prospects in 2027, but Jacksonville and Northeast Florida are not among them, according to a new industry outlook released this week by PwC and the Urban Land Institute.

The 2027 Emerging Trends in Real Estate report places Miami at No. 3 nationally, followed by Tampa/St. Petersburg at No. 9, Orlando at No. 11, Palm Beach at No. 17 and Fort Lauderdale at No. 18 overall. The rankings reflect surveyed real-estate professionals' views on investment, development and homebuilding opportunities across commercial and residential real estate for the year ahead. Jacksonville did not appear in the top 20 overall or in a separate ranking of the top 25 markets for homebuilding prospects.

What's in the rankings

The overall ranking combines surveyed real-estate professionals' views on investment, development and homebuilding opportunities across both commercial and residential real estate, according to PwC and the Urban Land Institute. A separate ranking focuses specifically on homebuilding prospects.

Among Florida markets, southwest Florida posted the biggest improvement, climbing nine places in the overall ranking, followed by Fort Lauderdale's seven-place gain. Tallahassee, Gainesville and Tampa/St. Petersburg moved lower compared to the previous year's outlook.

For homebuilding prospects specifically, Fort Lauderdale leads Florida markets at No. 5 nationally, followed by Tampa/St. Petersburg at No. 7, Orlando at No. 19 and Miami at No. 23. The report notes that a market can appeal to investors buying existing properties while posing challenges for builders trying to add new homes — explaining why Miami ranks third overall but 23rd for homebuilding.

The report says insurance costs, competing properties and what buyers and renters can afford help determine where opportunities pencil out. When approvals drag out, interest rates, building costs and demand can change before construction even starts, the report found.

What Jacksonville's absence signals for local development

Jacksonville's omission from both the overall and homebuilding rankings suggests that real-estate professionals surveyed for the report see stronger near-term opportunities in other Florida markets. The region has marketed itself as an affordability alternative to South Florida, and recent years have brought a steady stream of multifamily, industrial and residential projects to Duval, St. Johns and Clay counties.

Yet the national survey results indicate that developers and investors — who put capital on the line — are currently prioritizing markets elsewhere in the state. The rankings do not measure the absolute volume of construction or sales activity; rather, they capture industry professionals' forward-looking expectations about where deals will make financial sense in the year ahead.

Projects in Northeast Florida face many of the same headwinds cited in the report: insurance costs have risen sharply for coastal and near-coastal properties, permitting timelines can stretch months or longer depending on the jurisdiction and the scale of a project, and stormwater, wetland and traffic-mitigation requirements add costs. St. Johns County's popularity is driven in large part by schools, but that growth also means new subdivisions compete for approvals and infrastructure capacity along corridors such as County Road 210 and State Road 16.

Because the top markets in the survey received similar scores, even small changes in respondents' opinions can move a market up or down the list, PwC and ULI noted. Jacksonville's position outside the top tier may reflect a mix of factors specific to how the region compares with Tampa, Orlando and South Florida on metrics such as job growth, population in-migration, rental vacancy rates and development-approval speed.

How affordability shapes the picture

The report also notes that affordability shapes the outlook for investment and construction. Markets where housing takes a smaller share of household income tend to have stronger occupancy, fewer tenant departures and more sustained rent growth, according to the findings.

Jacksonville has historically offered a cost-of-living advantage over South Florida and other major metros, with a median home price well below Miami, Fort Lauderdale or Palm Beach. That affordability has been a selling point for families relocating from higher-cost markets and for employers looking to attract workers. The question raised by the rankings is whether that affordability advantage is enough, on its own, to attract the capital and projects that drive a market up the national leaderboard.

Affordability can cut both ways for real-estate investors: lower home prices mean lower rents and sale prices for developers and landlords, which can make projects harder to finance compared to markets where rents and sale prices are higher. At the same time, more affordable markets can sustain occupancy and rent collection better during economic downturns, because tenants and buyers have more income left over after housing costs.

The report does not break out data on Jacksonville's specific affordability metrics or compare household income-to-housing-cost ratios across Florida markets. But the general finding that affordability supports occupancy and rent growth suggests that markets able to maintain lower costs while adding jobs and population — a balance Northeast Florida has pursued — would eventually attract more investor interest.

What restrictive zoning and approvals mean for the market

The report highlights that lengthy approvals and restrictive zoning can limit new construction while making existing properties more valuable. That dynamic helps explain why Miami ranks third overall for real-estate prospects but 23rd for homebuilding, and why Fort Lauderdale ranks 18th overall but fifth for homebuilding.

In Northeast Florida, zoning and approval processes vary by jurisdiction. Jacksonville's consolidated city-county government processes rezonings and land-use amendments through the Planning Commission and City Council. Downtown projects also require design review by the Downtown Development Review Board. St. Johns County's development approval process involves the county planning and zoning agency and the Board of County Commissioners, and projects affecting wetlands typically require permits from the St. Johns River Water Management District.

Large projects often need Planned Unit Development zoning, which allows flexibility in design but requires additional review and public hearings. Master-planned communities such as Nocatee in St. Johns County and developments along the First Coast Expressway in Clay County go through multi-phase approval processes that can take years from land acquisition to the first home closing.

The report found that when approvals drag out, interest rates, building costs and demand can change before construction even starts — adding risk for developers who must commit capital up front. How efficiently Northeast Florida jurisdictions process permits and approvals, relative to the Florida markets that did rank in the top 20, is a factor that would influence where builders and investors choose to deploy capital in the year ahead.

What happens next for the region

The PwC and Urban Land Institute rankings are a snapshot of industry sentiment heading into 2027, not a ceiling on what Northeast Florida can achieve. Markets move up and down the list as economic conditions, policy decisions and infrastructure investments shift the opportunity landscape.

For Jacksonville and the broader region, the key factors that would likely move the needle in future surveys are the same ones cited in the report: affordability relative to job growth, the speed and predictability of development approvals, insurance cost trends, and the pace at which infrastructure — roads, schools, water and sewer capacity — keeps up with new rooftops.

JEA's capital plans, the city's ongoing Downtown Northbank projects supported by the Downtown Investment Authority, St. Johns County's continued opening of new schools to serve growth, and Clay County's alignment of zoning with the First Coast Expressway corridor are all pieces of the competitive picture. The report does not forecast which markets will rise or fall in next year's rankings, but it does make clear that real-estate capital flows to markets where the numbers pencil out — and where the approval process, insurance environment and tenant demand align.

As Florida's population growth continues to outpace the nation and developers and investors decide where to build next, Northeast Florida's challenge is to translate its affordability, available land and economic development momentum into the kind of forward momentum that puts it in the top tier of national real-estate opportunity rankings. This year's survey suggests that work remains to be done.